FOLIO
Words by Kaleb Mantela
From sunny Amelia Island down to the ancient streets of St. Augustine, a common topic permeates the minds and discussions of Northeast Floridians everywhere. What’s happening to our communities? Tales from older residents paint stories of untouched beaches dotted with small communities and country backroads. Now those beaches are overcrowded, the small communities have merged into megaliths of suburban sprawl, and the quaint country roads have been turned into endless developments. The zeitgeist of old Florida is dying as more people escape to this more affordable and sunny state. However, even now affordability is beginning to strain, and the storm clouds of devastating hurricanes are here to blow down perceptions. We must ask, how is Northeast Florida prepared to handle affordability, environmental preservation and traffic congestion in the face of worsening environmental disasters?
Bad Urban Planning
Remote workers, retirees, military, in-state and out-of-state movers, and other sorts of people across the United States have been flocking to Northeast Florida. The biggest counties in the First Coast have been enduring most of the population explosion. Through the 2010s, Duval County’s population increased 15.2%, Nassau County by 23.2%, and St. Johns County a staggering 43.9%. This population growth is expected to remain steady for years to come.
St. Johns County proves to be the most controversial with 350 housing developments in construction and housing prices soaring to a median price of $549,000 (and rising) countywide. To accommodate, housing has blasted off across Northeast Florida. These new homes have a positive effect by adding supply to the market which helps lower overall housing prices. However, due to the inherently poor design of the above-mentioned neighborhoods, they generate undue amounts of traffic, increase obesity rates and degrade Florida’s environment. These developments aren’t recreating the quaint neighborhoods of Riverside and Avondale or mirroring the ancient streets of St. Augustine. Rather, they are loosely connected McMansions stuck within disorienting mazes of sprawl splintered off six-lane “stroads.” Moreover, newly constructed apartments are built in the same blocky gentrification-style that sit in vast plains of asphalt between busy intersections. Those types of developments feature sidewalks that lead nowhere, mandated green spaces with no good parks to visit, overly wide, winding streets built for cars — not kids. The American Planning Association (APA) has identified those designs as flawed. St. Johns, Duval and Nassau counties have incorporated solid ordinances on affordability measures and urban sprawl control; yet those ordinances do not seem to be adhered to or enforced. The lack of enforcement on up-to-date urban designs places Northeast Florida’s ability to withstand disasters in jeopardy.
Environmental Preservation
From 2023 to 2024 home insurance premiums in Duval, Clay, St. Johns and Nassau counties rose by 14%. Citizens on average in Duval and St. Johns County are paying $4,000 annually in insurance premiums. Whether you believe in climate change or not, insurance companies are raising their rates for a reason. Florida has long been known as a thoroughfare for hurricanes, and these disasters are expected to increase in their ferocity and frequency. St. Johns County has taken the initiative in its 2050 Comprehensive General Plan to accommodate rising sea levels and environmental disasters. Even as local authorities plan for the environment, uninhibited rapid urban sprawl in the hinterlands has decreased the county’s ability to control flood waters. This expansionist growth is much of the same across Northeast Florida. No matter how much “green space” is mandated for water runoff or how many stormwater retention ponds are required, they will never be enough to hold back the devastating effects of a major flood. These controls cannot replace the swamp that is meant to be there. It is extremely short-sighted to exchange the sponge-like effects of wetlands for traffic flow, empty grass fields or McMansions. Local authorities may plan for floods all they want, but allowing substandard urban designs to swallow up the environment will exacerbate future disasters. Unchecked sprawl doesn’t just compromise natural flood defenses; it also compromises traffic flow.
Traffic Congestion
Substantial population growth comes with substantial traffic congestion, which has become a way of life lately. Annual mobility reports from the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (NFTPO) across four counties in Northeast Florida estimate that vehicle-miles traveled increased 10.6% from 2006 to 2019, meaning collectively more vehicles have been placing stress on roads, bridges and air-quality. NFTPO plays a crucial role in the coordination of federal, state and local organizations in Northeast Florida’s roadway expansion and maintenance. The 2045 Long-Range plan pushed by NFTPO has provisions for reducing car dependency by paying lip service to other transportation options such as walking, bus rapid transit, cycling, and even commuter rail. However, the plan is extensive in its focus on vehicle traffic with the explicit intention of widening roadways. These sycophantic obsessions with the flow of traffic by paving for more roadways have an inane loop of actually causing more traffic in the long term through a process called induced demand. When congestion gets bad, policymakers expand roadways. As new capacity appears, congestion eases until drivers adjust by shifting travel times, increasing trip frequency and moving farther from urban centers — ultimately renewing previous congestion levels. As an example, the Katy Freeway in Houston, which features 26 lanes, continues to expand but fails to bring down commute time long-term. It appears policymakers in Northeast Florida follow Houston’s example by not heeding its warning. There are obvious things Northeast Florida must implement in the coming years.
Conclusion
Municipalities along with regional planning agencies need to prioritize up-to-date urban planning and design standards, genuine environmental preservation and divestment from roadway expansions. Those practices will preserve the character of Northeast Florida while accommodating newcomers. As much as this column should end on a positive note, let us be honest. The above-mentioned things are not going to happen because our leaders are more motivated to deal with recent problems with old tricks. Whether it is the lack of political willpower or sheer ignorance of basic planning principles, our paradise is going to be paved with parking lots, outlet malls and McMansions. Traffic congestion up to the gills, along with the constant humdrum of stroads will be the issues future leaders will deal with because of the impotence of current-day policymakers. These issues don’t mark the end of the world as we know it but will pose difficult hurdles for future generations to overcome.
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