Shelton Hull
Words by Shelton Hull
By the time you’re reading this, we’ll be less than two months out from Election Day, and with it the crucial Amendment 3, around which hopes for an exponential expansion of the Florida cannabis market revolve. My take, from day one, was that passage was inevitable, but I was given slight pause by a Jacob Ogles article on floridapolitics.com on Aug. 30, and it’s all got me thinking about how cannabis has gone so quickly mainstream in local media. Ogles cited a poll by Cherry Communications, hired by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, showing support at 59%, well within the margin of error for the 60% threshold needed, but still a good five points less than what it should be, in theory.
By contrast, the most recent poll results from UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) went out July 30, and they reported 64% in favor, itself a little 3% drop from November 2023. (Quick, unrelated note: UNF has unveiled a full cannabis course load for fall 2023 with classes starting in September and November. Five different courses, all 100% online, just $499 a month or about $3,000 per certificate. Great deal — recommended!) Putting aside questions about sample size, methodology and general geographical variance among firms posted at opposite ends of this massive state, what else could have happened to cause that drop. I would say: Nothing.
Debate on the amendment has, so far, been driven by Governor Ron DeSantis, who’s been all over the place on cannabis matters since the start of his first term. The governor’s main opp on Amendment 3 is Trulieve, which funded the petition drive and ponied up more for advertising.
With most conservatives occupied with the existential threat posed by the Harris-Walz ticket, Florida Republicans are mostly keeping a low profile, in some cases even offering mild pushback on those crazy park proposals or anything Ben Sasse-related, hoping the Blue Wave just washes over them. It makes little sense to waste any political capital backing the weak governor against maybe the closest thing to a bipartisan initiative you’ll find these days.
While DeSantis is the only guy trying to personalize resistance to Amendment 3, proponents are being super-timid, as well. I’d have expected politicians and influencers lining up to partner up in support. Mayor Deegan was bold enough to endorse it, and Sheriff Waters was equally bold not to, but sadly, nary a local legend has moved the needle much. (I feel kinda bad for not getting the scoop from either, but the voters probably feel worse.) I’d suggest a debate on the issue, between Deegan and Waters; I’ll even moderate, for a moderate fee.
Interestingly, the biggest splash made on Amendment 3 was made by the eminently buoyant (in flesh, if not in spirit) former President Donald Trump, who voiced his firm support on social media over Labor Day weekend. He seemingly backed those words with action or at least the appearance thereof by meeting with both conservative Brady Cobb of Sunburn Cannabis and liberal Kim Rivers of Trulieve, who, of course, bankrolled the petition drive. Like anyone who spent their 20s in Rockefeller-era NYC, Trump has been pretty consistently ambivalent on weed, historically. It’s a rare case of him reading the tea leaves perfectly and forcing reluctant thumbs up, even from me. This opens the door for him to poach portions of what should be hundreds of thousands of single-issue voters who came for 3 but may stay for 45. (I’ll assume all this to be Susie Wiles’ doing, until I hear otherwise.)
Up and down the state, local media was mostly lax on covering this issue until Amendment 3 made the ballot, and now they’re playing catch up. Forget about institutional knowledge; it’s all fresh meat walking that beat, working the same horserace angles that all regional political coverage tends to fixate on. It’s a passive, simplistic approach that bypasses a lot of the more interesting parts of any narrative. We can see that same style at work in the current coverage of Amendment 3, and that may be why the poll numbers are so far behind initial projections.
From these sides, you get most of the current coverage, which the general audience will receive like baby birds at breakfast. Unlike you, the readers of this column, neither they nor the media that serves them will have had the seven-year head start on this moment that Folio Weed has provided you with. And every single word is free. You’re welcome!
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