High and Rising

Mark Twain once credited British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli with one of the great truths of political life: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” That’s worth bearing in mind when considering some recent studies related to Florida’s long-term pot prognosis, all of which are implying that the economic stimulus generated by decriminalization in other states pales in comparison to what the future may hold for the Sunshine State.

The website Statista (“The Statistics Portal”) has a chart called “Forecast of marijuana sales in Florida from 2016 to 2025,” and it’s projecting explosive growth in the decade ahead. I’m not paying $49 to find out who their sources are, but according to the figures, marijuana sales topped $17 million in 2017, and that number is expected to grow to $152 million this year. Further, Statista sees that more than doubling to $386 million in 2019, and to almost double again in 2020, reaching $727 million. By its reckoning, pot sales in Florida will exceed $1 billion by 2021, and hit $1.5 billion in 2022.

By the middle of the next decade, Statista projects sales to reach a staggering $2.5 billion annually, which is truly insane to think about, yet still entirely reasonable. By that point, the state will have generated more than 10 billion dollars in revenue. At the same time our industry is growing, it projects a plateau for sales in current industry leaders like California and Oregon, whose sales are actually expected to decrease. This points to increased competition among marijuana states, the number of which is also likely to continue growing every electoral cycle.

If those numbers make your head spin (as if it weren’t spinning already, stoner), take note of a Dec. 9, 2016 article in Forbes, which is even more bullish. Citing a study from New Frontier Data, with stats provided by Arcview Market Research, Forbes predicts that “Florida’s market will grow to $1.6 billion by 2020 at a compound annual growth rate of 140 percent. That would make it half the size of California’s projected $2.6 billion market and top the projected $1.5 billion medical marijuana market for Colorado.”

This is more than double Statista’s estimate of $727 million, which itself was far beyond even the most optimistic projections of activists at the dawn of this era.

“The New Frontier report believes that Florida could end up becoming 7.5 percent of the total legal U.S. cannabis market,” writes Forbes’ Debra Borchardt, “and 14 percent of the medical marijuana market by 2020.” It’s notable that the Forbes article was written just one month after Amendment 2 passed in November 2016, before any of the actual infrastructure had been put in place. According to the Florida Department of Health, the number of certified medical marijuana patients in the state surged from 19,494 in June 2017 to 85,985 by March 2018; more than quadrupling in just nine months.

All these wild projections may bear fruit, not just flower, if current growth rates continue at their present pace.