FOLIO
by Tom Weppel
Random thoughts from a cluttered mind…
JAGUARS
With two weeks left in the regular season, the Jaguars are 7-7, along with a host of other AFC squads. They still have a shot at the playoffs, although that chance is quite slim. This weekend, they go up to New England to face the Patriots. The Jaguars have played the Patriots four times in their history, and have yet to beat them.
Last week, we saw Jaguars S Reggie Nelson get called out for the way he worked on the field against the Colts. In particular, we saw Nelson only go for the ball after Colt WR Reggie Wayne beat him on a post route for a TD.. Nelson could’ve easily brought Wayne down with a tackle. When asked about the deal, Jack Del Rio didn’t necessarily come out with accolades! So, look for limited action on the part of Reggie Nelson on Sunday, with Anthony Smith, Gerald Alexander, or Sean Considine getting a good number of snaps.
The Patriots are a veteran ballclub, without question, but they also are NOT the same team they used to be. At 9-5, they lead the AFC East. They are also undefeated (7-0) at home. QB Tom Brady is easily one of the top players in the NFL, with 24 TD throws. WR Wes Welker leads the NFL in catches, with 109. Randy Moss is still a dangerous target.
But their defense is not the best, only ranking 15th overall in the NFL in stopping the run. So, while New England is still a formidable group as the season winds down, they are not playing the dominant style of ball we have seem earlier in the decade, when they won three Super Bowl titles.
A win by the Jags in this contest would certainly be a strong feather for Del Rio to put in his cap. It would still keep the Jags in the hunt for a playoff slot, which they would love to have. A loss would dampen their hopes for the post season, without question.
So, the incentive is there. We’ll see if they can pull off the upset…
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
With two games/weeks left to go in this NFL season, it is fair to say that all 32 teams can be broken down in to three fairly distinct groups.
In one corner, you have the teams that have essentially nothing to play for, considering the postseason. Their seasons have gone south, or sour, depending on the term you’d like to use. They know there is no way they can win the Super Bowl, because they have been so bad they are mathematically OUT of the playoff picture. Teams like the Browns, Chiefs, Rams, and Bucs, etc. fall in to this category.
Then you have a group of teams that do indeed have a shot at making the playoffs. These are teams with either a 7-7 record, or maybe 8-6. They are right in the hunt to claim a playoff slot by the end of the season, but have to win out in order to get in. They include the Broncos, Packers, Ravens, and Cowboys.
And finally, there is a select group of teams that have locked down playoff spots and are set for the postseason. With these squads, you wonder how they will handle themselves in these last two games, and what their mindset is as they approach their ultimate goal, which they feel is quite reachable. The Colts, Saints, Vikings, and Chargers headline this category.
I bring this all up because of the craziness to consider going into the weekend match ups. To give you an example, last weekend, only FOUR of the teams that were favored by Las Vegas to win their respective games last weekend actually did indeed win and cover. That, my friends, is ridiculous! You would think that teams like the Raiders and Bucs had no shot of winning last weekend, yet they both pulled out wins, on the road!
That said, it makes you also realize that, just because teams with awful records seem to have nothing to play for, does NOT mean they won’t go out and try to pull off an upset, enjoying the victory in the meantime..
Going into this weekend, there are only TWO visiting teams who are favored to win this weekend (Dallas, at Washington, and the Vikes, at Chicago).On average, though, almost half of all away teams actually do pull off a victory. Keep that in consideration when perusing the lines!
If there are two games of real interest, they are both in the state of Pennsylvania. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers will host the Ravens in what will be certain to get nasty and physical. Both teams have a shot at claiming a wild card slot in the AFC. A loss by either will not be a good thing at all. Then in Philadelphia, the Eagles will host the Broncos, a team that has the lead on one of the AFC wild card slots, but must still win their last two games in order to feel good. That said, they might have a very tough time going up against the Eagles, who are playing good ball overall. Plus, Denver has not played well on the road.
So, when the dust settles after these games, it should be quite interesting to see who was able to take care of business, who was able to pull off the upset, and who simply went out and played out for the paycheck.
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